Recession Outlook, Volterra's Revised Forecasts ___________________________
Our forecasts have been revised for the coming year. The downturn has been more rapid - and data revisions suggest it started earlier - than we were previously showing. This has compressed the period over which a third quartile recession is likely to take place and means that recovery in 2010 has become more probable than we previously thought.
We still believe that a 5 percent loss of output is going to occur over a two year period. This makes it a severe recession but not one of the worst. In other words the efforts to prevent the collapse of capitalism have been successful.
Recorded & Forecast UK GDP Growth >>
Quarterly, Percentage Change On Year Earlier |
Quarterly, Cumulative Fall From Peak (Q1 2008) |
Annual Growth |
||
2008 Q1 |
2.5% |
0.0% |
0.7% |
|
2008 Q2 |
1.8% |
-0.1% |
||
2008 Q3 |
0.5% |
-0.8% |
||
2008 Q4 |
-1.8% |
-2.6% |
||
2009 Q1 |
-4.9% |
-4.9% |
-4.8% |
|
2009 Q2 |
-5.8% |
-5.9% |
||
2009 Q3 |
-5.1% |
-5.9% |
||
2009 Q4 |
-3.1% |
-5.6% |
||
2010 Q1 |
-0.3% |
-5.2% |
1.9% |
|
2010 Q2 |
1.6% |
-4.4% |
||
2010 Q3 |
2.6% |
-3.4% |
||
2010 Q4 |
3.5% |
-2.3% |
| Key: | Volterra Forecast |
ONS Recorded |
|---|
