Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) Seminar
We are running a seminar on 15 March for the CML on economic stress testing. This is a critical aspect of the implementation of Basel II. Under the new rules, financial institutions will have to show whether they will still have enough capital when there is a downturn in the economy. The seminar will help CML members understand the implications of a 1 in 25 year recession and how to model these effects on their portfolios. The focus of the seminar will be on retail mortgage lending, but will also look at other retail lending, such as unsecured loans and credit cards. To find out more about the workshop, or register to attend please visit www.cml.org.uk.
Strutt & Parker: Bridget speaks at Annual Conference 'Prospects for Property'
Strutt & Parker held their annual Prospects for Property conference at the beginning of February, which is widely held to be the best review of the property market held in London. Bridget has now provided the economic overview annually for the last decade (actually she has lost count of how long) while the event has grown in success and stature alongside our involvement with Strutt and Parker. This year we are reputed to have improved on perfection, reporting on globalisation, the risks to the economy and the implications for property returns on which the burning question remains the extent to which they can fall further. Click here to download the full presentation. Volterra now provides a range of research and services to Strutt and Parker from providing a quarterly Newsletter to project specific research requirements.
GLA Economics seminar on Success, Strategy and Sectors
Paul Ormerod and Bridget Rosewell gave two of the presentations at a GLA Economics seminar on Success, Strategy and Sectors. Bridget presented on different ways of thinking about Industrial structure, while Paul talked about industrial structure, local and regional economic development. He described results which examine the percentage change in employment in each of the UK's 400+ local authority areas over a twenty year period, and whether this can be explained by their industrial structure. In fact, the mix of industries does have some effect on success, but there is a wide variety in the mix of successful areas. A successful local economy can in principle be built upon almost any industrial structure. Click here for the article published in the Business Economist.
Paul speaks at 'Festival of Ideas' on the South Bank
Paul Ormerod gave the key presentation on success and failure in creative industries on 8 February at a session of the '100 Ideas' for the 'Festival of Ideas' at the South Bank.
Creative industries - film, theatre, software for example - are fundamentally different from more mature industries. Until a film is seen, for example, or an idea read, the consumer does not know in advance whether he or she will like it. The formation of individual opinions is strongly determined by social networks, by the opinions of others whose views you respect.
This means that success and failure is more ruthless than in other industries; success can be spectacular and rapid whilst a very large proportion of ventures fail. The slides for Paul's presentation are available to download here.
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