Play statistics with the Rochdale Hornets...for your chance to WIN!

Paul is a leading sponsor of Rochdale Hornets Rugby League football club for the forthcoming season. 'They have been going through a bad patch, but have recruited a former Great Britain star as their coach, so there will be a big push for promotion' he says. Still, caution is in order, as the team has not actually won anything since 1922. Click here to view a statistical analysis of their league position since 1895, including the autocorrelation function and smoothed periodogram. Paul is offering a prize of a box seat at a game for the first reader to give the correct answer to:

 

What Rugby League record do the Hornets hold?

 

In time honoured tradition, the second prize will be a box seat at two games.

 

Volterra launches NEW tool for analysing consumer motivations

When consumers browse in store or online, what is the main motivation behind the decision to purchase?  Our new Impulse/Selection Analysis (ISA) tool has been designed to distinguish impulse buys – where consumers simply copy the behaviour of others – from purposeful selection of products based on their objective qualities and features. Using sales data, ISA identifies the primary motivation to purchase for each type of product sold by a company, and can be used to enhance product development strategies, refine marketing plans and inform decisions about what to sell online and what to keep in store. To read more click here.

 

Extreme events in the UK's commercial property sector

Volterra analysis has shown that the UK commercial property market has experienced an extreme event. The IPD Monthly Index of Total Returns across all commercial property classes registered a fall of 3.56% in November 2007, the biggest drop in its 20 year history. In fact the situation is even worse than implied by the percentage changes alone. Because the data are ‘fat tailed’ (i.e. with a non-normal distribution), we have to use advanced techniques to produce estimates of the probability of such events. Surprisingly, even density estimation – one of the most sophisticated techniques available – fails to produce a reliable estimate of the likelihood of the November falls because they occur so far out in the tail of the distribution. Whichever way we look at it, the commercial property market is experiencing a highly unusual set of events. Our full analysis can be read here.

 

Paul presenting in Santiago and California

Volterra Director Paul Ormerod is presenting at two important events over the coming weeks. This month, Paul is speaking at the European Climate Forum Science Council conference in Santiago de Compostela, while in February he heads to California to give the keynote address at the Fourteenth Anniversary Organization Science Winter Conference on The Organization Science of Extreme Events, where he will be presenting new analysis on business cycles. Copies of his presentations are available by contacting us.