Understanding international political risk: prospects for disintegration in China
Paul is an invited speaker this month at the Singapore Government's Centre for Excellence for National Security conference on international risk assessment and horizon scanning. Conventional methods of assessing international risk have a very poor track record. Paul will talk about how to capture the knowledge of experts in a systematic way, and how this can be demonstrated to decision makers in simple graphical form. The approach captures the complex feedback loops which exist in reality. He is illustrating this with a tool for understanding the potential for political breakdown in China. Click here to access the slides of his talk.
Uses and Abuses of Forecasting: Expert Briefing for Futureskills Scotland
Futureskills Scotland commissioned Bridget to present a paper on methods of forecasting, their limits and how forecasts should be used, which she presented in Glasgow on 15th March. The paper is available on www.futureskillsscotland.org.uk. In her presentation, Bridget described methods of forecasting from divination to econometric modelling, reviewed data and modelling limitations and made a clear distinction between understanding a problem and being able to forecast it. In her conclusions, she focussed on the imperative of reviewing available history when considering any forecast as well as on the importance of understanding the underlying story. Click here to view her presentation.
Volterra seminar on Economic Stress Testing sells out
On 15th March Volterra held a seminar on economic stress testing, which was hosted by the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML). The seminar covered complex topics such as Procyclicality, Behavioural Scoring and joint density distributions for use in Economic Scenarios. We presented modelling techniques which can be used to understand the implications of a 1 in 25 year recession on retail portfolios. Will Cook, Matt Salisbury and Ellie Cooper presented at the seminar. Click here to download the full presentations.
Volterra is growing
Volterra is regularly taking on new and innovative projects and as a result we are planning to continue expanding. We are looking for at least one consultant to join our team. Applicants should have strong quantitative skills, and background in a relevant discipline. If you know anyone who might be interested, please refer them to the vacancy details on our website.
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